CV

Basics

Name J. Jake Nichol
Label Postdoctoral Appointee, Scientific Machine Learning, Sandia National Laboratories
Email jefnich@sandia.gov
Url https://www.jjakenichol.com
Summary My research advances AI Credibility for high-consequence scientific and national security applications: I believe consequential decisions demand mechanistic understanding, not black-box correlation. I develop causal discovery and physics-informed modeling methods to improve the interpretability, robustness, and evidence-based assurance of AI-enabled systems, including foundation and generative models. This is motivated by a broader interest in discovering new dynamics and phenomena in high-consequence domains and the natural sciences, particularly Earth systems, and in how credibility evidence supports human trust and decision-making.

Education

  • 2018 - 2025

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Ph.D.
    University of New Mexico, School of Engineering
    Computer Science
    • Dissertation: Seeking Structure in Complex Systems: From Feature Analysis to Space-Time Causal Discovery with Earth Science Applications
    • Advisor: Melanie E. Moses
  • 2015 - 2017

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    M.B.A.
    University of New Mexico, Anderson School of Management
    Business Administration
  • 2011 - 2016

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    B.S.
    University of New Mexico, School of Engineering
    Computer Science

Work

  • 2025 - Present

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Postdoctoral Appointee
    Sandia National Laboratories
    Scientific Machine Learning department.
    • Research on AI credibility: causal discovery, trustworthy and certifiable machine learning, and physics-informed modeling for high-consequence applications.
    • Causal analysis of weather foundation models to test whether systematic interventions bias model behavior toward more (or less) realistic weather phenomena.
    • Causal modeling for cyber-physical threat detection in power grids.
  • 2019 - 2025

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    R&D Graduate Intern (Year-Round)
    Sandia National Laboratories
    Scientific Machine Learning department. Part-time 2019-2021, full-time 2021-2025.
    • Developed CaStLe, a causal discovery meta-algorithm for recovering local space-time causal structure in gridded data.
    • Led causal modeling for the CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD, identifying source-to-impact pathways in the climate system.
    • Applied and benchmarked causal discovery (PC, PCMCI) for causal pathways from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
    • Used random forest feature importance to compare observed and simulated climate data and expose model deficiencies.
  • 2018 - 2019

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Graduate Research Assistant
    University of New Mexico
    Department of Computer Science, School of Engineering.
    • Robotics research under Dr. Lydia Tapia.
    • Computational sociology research under Dr. Marina Kogan.
  • 2017 - 2019

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Owner
    Swarming Technologies LLC
    Profitable robotics company selling self-designed autonomous robots, custom-design consulting, and repair services.
    • Robots, known as 'Swarmies', were designed for swarm robotics and autonomous robotics research and education.
    • Swarmies were featured in the NASA Swarmathon, NASA MINDS competition, and CS4All NM.
  • 2015 - 2017

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Robot Engineer/Designer
    NASA Swarmathon & Moses Biological Computation Lab
    Designed and built the autonomous swarming robots used in the NASA Swarmathon, a nation-wide collegiate robotics competition.
    • Mechanical design in Autodesk Inventor; manufacturing via SLS, SLA, and FDM 3D printing, plus electronics development.
    • Analyzed competition data to track progress and success determinants using MySQL and Python (NumPy, SciPy, Pandas).
    • Automated code deployment to robot fleets using Ansible and Docker.
    • Swarm robotics research on Arduino/iPod Touch-controlled iAnt robots, tuning behavior with a genetic algorithm.
  • 2014 - 2014
    Software Engineering Intern
    Intel Corporation
    Product surveying, QA, troubleshooting, and testing.
    • Arduino/Galileo programming and debugging.
    • Designed and built a robotic car controlled by the Intel Galileo Gen 2, with Bluetooth input from an Android phone and sensors for line following and obstacle avoidance.

Projects

  • 2026 - Present
    MetaShield LDRD: Co-Lead, Causal AI Team
    PI: Georgios Fragkos. Combining causal AI with meta-learning to enhance ML detection of cyber-physical threats to power grids.
    • Co-leading the causal AI team to integrate causal modeling paradigms with ML for better power grid analysis and resilience.
    • Cross-lab team spanning centers 1400, 5600, 8700, and 8800, with industry partners PNM and GE Vernova.
  • 2026 - Present
    SEA-CROGS: Contributor
    PI: Eric Cyr. Scalable, Efficient and Accelerated Causal Reasoning Operators, Graphs and Spikes for Earth and Embedded Systems.
    • Developing causal analyses of the Aurora weather foundation model to determine whether systematic interventions can bias model behavior toward more (or less) realistic weather phenomena.
    • Collaboration between PNNL and SNL, with academic partners at Brown, Yale, Caltech, NJIT, and Stanford.
  • 2025 - Present
    Towards Certifying Trustworthy Machine Learning LDRD: Team Lead, Credibility
    PI: Michael Darling. Co-leading the credibility assessment effort.
    • Developing the Generalized Modeling Maturity Model (GeMMM), which generalizes the CompSim Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) to any modeling paradigm.
    • Developing the taxonomy of computational modeling.
    • Cross-lab team spanning centers 1400, 5400, 5500, and 8700.
  • 2022 - 2024
    CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD: Causal Modeling Lead, Attribution Thrust
    PI: Diana Bull; Thrust Lead: Laura P. Swiler. CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways.
    • Led the R&D of applying causal modeling to understand the drivers of stratospheric aerosol transport and their impacts.
    • Led the R&D of a novel causal discovery algorithm (CaStLe) for gridded spatiotemporal data in physical systems.
  • 2021 - 2021
    Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences Between Observations and Earth System Models (Late-Start LDRD): Contributor
    PI: Matt Peterson.
    • Developed a causal discovery methodology to model Arctic sea ice extent drivers, in preparation for applying the workflow in the CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD.
  • 2020 - 2022
    Advanced Data Analytics for Proliferation Detection (ADAPD): Contributor
    A multi-lab initiative.
    • Developed hidden Markov models for multimodal temporal data analysis.
  • 2018 - 2020
    Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change LDRD: Contributor
    PI: Kara Peterson.
    • Developed random forest regression models for predicting Arctic sea ice extent with feature importance analysis.

Publications

Awards

Volunteer

  • 2026 - 2026
    Reviewer
    IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems
    Peer review for IEEE TNNLS.
  • 2025 - 2025
    Reviewer
    American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate
    Peer review for the Journal of Climate.
  • 2024 - 2024
    Reviewer
    ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
    Peer review for KDD.
  • 2018 - Present

    Santa Fe, NM, USA

    Adaptive Ski Instructor
    Adaptive Sports Program New Mexico Inc
    Teach skiing to people with various disabilities.
  • 2017 - 2020

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Troop 9 Board of Review Member
    Boy Scouts of America
    Attend board of review meetings to assist in scout advancement.

Skills

Causal Inference
Causal structure learning / causal discovery / causal network learning
Causal inference for advancing scientific machine learning
Machine Learning
Scientific machine learning
Domain- and physics-informed machine learning
Feature importance: random forest Gini importance, permutation importance, drop-column importance, SHAP
Artificial Intelligence
AI for Earth systems science
Trusted AI and explainable AI
Fairness and ethics in AI
Programming
Python: NumPy, SciPy, Pandas, Xarray, DASK, Tigramite
LaTeX
HPC frameworks: Slurm, PBS, GNU Parallel
MATLAB
Minor experience with Docker and Ansible

Interests

Research Interests
AI credibility for high-consequence domains
Space-time causal discovery
Physics-informed and scientific machine learning
Credibility evidence for human trust and decision-making
Earth system science and climate dynamics
Outside of Work
Skiing
Camping
Cycling
Scuba diving
Cats and dogs