CV
Basics
| Name | J. Jake Nichol |
| Label | Postdoctoral Appointee, Scientific Machine Learning, Sandia National Laboratories |
| jefnich@sandia.gov | |
| Url | https://www.jjakenichol.com |
| Summary | My research advances AI Credibility for high-consequence scientific and national security applications: I believe consequential decisions demand mechanistic understanding, not black-box correlation. I develop causal discovery and physics-informed modeling methods to improve the interpretability, robustness, and evidence-based assurance of AI-enabled systems, including foundation and generative models. This is motivated by a broader interest in discovering new dynamics and phenomena in high-consequence domains and the natural sciences, particularly Earth systems, and in how credibility evidence supports human trust and decision-making. |
Education
-
2018 - 2025 Albuquerque, NM, USA
Ph.D.
University of New Mexico, School of Engineering
Computer Science
- Dissertation: Seeking Structure in Complex Systems: From Feature Analysis to Space-Time Causal Discovery with Earth Science Applications
- Advisor: Melanie E. Moses
-
2015 - 2017 Albuquerque, NM, USA
-
2011 - 2016 Albuquerque, NM, USA
Work
-
2025 - Present Albuquerque, NM, USA
Postdoctoral Appointee
Sandia National Laboratories
Scientific Machine Learning department.
- Research on AI credibility: causal discovery, trustworthy and certifiable machine learning, and physics-informed modeling for high-consequence applications.
- Causal analysis of weather foundation models to test whether systematic interventions bias model behavior toward more (or less) realistic weather phenomena.
- Causal modeling for cyber-physical threat detection in power grids.
-
2019 - 2025 Albuquerque, NM, USA
R&D Graduate Intern (Year-Round)
Sandia National Laboratories
Scientific Machine Learning department. Part-time 2019-2021, full-time 2021-2025.
- Developed CaStLe, a causal discovery meta-algorithm for recovering local space-time causal structure in gridded data.
- Led causal modeling for the CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD, identifying source-to-impact pathways in the climate system.
- Applied and benchmarked causal discovery (PC, PCMCI) for causal pathways from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
- Used random forest feature importance to compare observed and simulated climate data and expose model deficiencies.
-
2018 - 2019 Albuquerque, NM, USA
Graduate Research Assistant
University of New Mexico
Department of Computer Science, School of Engineering.
- Robotics research under Dr. Lydia Tapia.
- Computational sociology research under Dr. Marina Kogan.
-
2017 - 2019 Albuquerque, NM, USA
Owner
Swarming Technologies LLC
Profitable robotics company selling self-designed autonomous robots, custom-design consulting, and repair services.
- Robots, known as 'Swarmies', were designed for swarm robotics and autonomous robotics research and education.
- Swarmies were featured in the NASA Swarmathon, NASA MINDS competition, and CS4All NM.
-
2015 - 2017 Albuquerque, NM, USA
Robot Engineer/Designer
NASA Swarmathon & Moses Biological Computation Lab
Designed and built the autonomous swarming robots used in the NASA Swarmathon, a nation-wide collegiate robotics competition.
- Mechanical design in Autodesk Inventor; manufacturing via SLS, SLA, and FDM 3D printing, plus electronics development.
- Analyzed competition data to track progress and success determinants using MySQL and Python (NumPy, SciPy, Pandas).
- Automated code deployment to robot fleets using Ansible and Docker.
- Swarm robotics research on Arduino/iPod Touch-controlled iAnt robots, tuning behavior with a genetic algorithm.
-
2014 - 2014 Software Engineering Intern
Intel Corporation
Product surveying, QA, troubleshooting, and testing.
- Arduino/Galileo programming and debugging.
- Designed and built a robotic car controlled by the Intel Galileo Gen 2, with Bluetooth input from an Android phone and sensors for line following and obstacle avoidance.
Projects
- 2026 - Present
MetaShield LDRD: Co-Lead, Causal AI Team
PI: Georgios Fragkos. Combining causal AI with meta-learning to enhance ML detection of cyber-physical threats to power grids.
- Co-leading the causal AI team to integrate causal modeling paradigms with ML for better power grid analysis and resilience.
- Cross-lab team spanning centers 1400, 5600, 8700, and 8800, with industry partners PNM and GE Vernova.
- 2026 - Present
SEA-CROGS: Contributor
PI: Eric Cyr. Scalable, Efficient and Accelerated Causal Reasoning Operators, Graphs and Spikes for Earth and Embedded Systems.
- Developing causal analyses of the Aurora weather foundation model to determine whether systematic interventions can bias model behavior toward more (or less) realistic weather phenomena.
- Collaboration between PNNL and SNL, with academic partners at Brown, Yale, Caltech, NJIT, and Stanford.
- 2025 - Present
Towards Certifying Trustworthy Machine Learning LDRD: Team Lead, Credibility
PI: Michael Darling. Co-leading the credibility assessment effort.
- Developing the Generalized Modeling Maturity Model (GeMMM), which generalizes the CompSim Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) to any modeling paradigm.
- Developing the taxonomy of computational modeling.
- Cross-lab team spanning centers 1400, 5400, 5500, and 8700.
- 2022 - 2024
CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD: Causal Modeling Lead, Attribution Thrust
PI: Diana Bull; Thrust Lead: Laura P. Swiler. CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways.
- Led the R&D of applying causal modeling to understand the drivers of stratospheric aerosol transport and their impacts.
- Led the R&D of a novel causal discovery algorithm (CaStLe) for gridded spatiotemporal data in physical systems.
- 2021 - 2021
Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences Between Observations and Earth System Models (Late-Start LDRD): Contributor
PI: Matt Peterson.
- Developed a causal discovery methodology to model Arctic sea ice extent drivers, in preparation for applying the workflow in the CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD.
- 2020 - 2022
Advanced Data Analytics for Proliferation Detection (ADAPD): Contributor
A multi-lab initiative.
- Developed hidden Markov models for multimodal temporal data analysis.
- 2018 - 2020
Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change LDRD: Contributor
PI: Kara Peterson.
- Developed random forest regression models for predicting Arctic sea ice extent with feature importance analysis.
Publications
-
2026 M-CaStLe: Uncovering Local Causal Structures in Multivariate Space-Time Gridded Data
In preparation, target: Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR)
-
2026 Causal Graphs for Threat Detection in Cyber-Physical Power Grids
Submitted to IEEE Resilience Week (RWS) 2026 (under review)
-
2026 Tracing the Space-Time Causal Origins of Earth System Extremes
Submitted to Science Advances (under review)
-
2026 Causal AI-Powered Dynamic ML Model Orchestration for Robust Cybersecurity
IEEE SmartGridComm 2026 (to appear)
-
2026 A Multi-Objective Optimization Framework for Trustworthy Machine Learning
Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence (MDAI) 2026 (to appear)
-
2026 Challenges of Certifying Machine Learning Trustworthiness in High-Consequence Domains
Data Science in Science (accepted)
-
2025 Seeking Structure in Complex Systems: From Feature Analysis to Space-Time Causal Discovery With Earth Science Applications
PhD dissertation, The University of New Mexico
-
2025 Space-Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach
Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation
Introduces Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a meta-algorithm that leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective, including for non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes.
-
2024 CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)
Sandia National Laboratories, Tech. Rep. SAND2024-13423R
-
2023 Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems
Sandia National Laboratories technical report
Benchmarks the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm on gridded spatiotemporal systems, finding that it requires unrealistic sample sizes and suffers a notable curse of dimensionality, which motivated the development of CaStLe.
-
2021 Water Cycle-Driven Infectious Diseases as Multiscale, Reliable, Continuously Updating Water Cycle Sensors
Sandia National Laboratories white paper
-
2021 Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning
Sandia National Laboratories white paper
-
2021 Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences between Observations and Earth System Models
Sandia National Laboratories technical report
-
2021 Learning Why: Data-Driven Causal Evaluations of Climate Models
ICML 2021 Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning
-
2021 Machine Learning Feature Analysis Illuminates Disparity Between E3SM Climate Models and Observed Climate Change
Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Uses random forest regression and Gini importance to show that the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) relies too heavily on one of ten climatological quantities to predict September sea ice averages, and overweights six others relative to observed data.
-
2020 Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)
Sandia National Laboratories technical report
-
2018 The Swarmathon: An Autonomous Swarm Robotics Competition
ICRA 2018 Workshop: Swarms — From Biology to Robotics and Back
Awards
- 2020
Best Talk Prize
European Seminar on Computing (ESCO)
- 2020
3rd Place Poster Prize
Department of Energy Conference on Data Analysis (CoDA)
Volunteer
-
2026 - 2026 -
2025 - 2025 Reviewer
American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate
Peer review for the Journal of Climate.
-
2024 - 2024 Reviewer
ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
Peer review for KDD.
-
2018 - Present Santa Fe, NM, USA
Adaptive Ski Instructor
Adaptive Sports Program New Mexico Inc
Teach skiing to people with various disabilities.
-
2017 - 2020 Albuquerque, NM, USA
Troop 9 Board of Review Member
Boy Scouts of America
Attend board of review meetings to assist in scout advancement.
Skills
| Causal Inference | |
| Causal structure learning / causal discovery / causal network learning | |
| Causal inference for advancing scientific machine learning |
| Machine Learning | |
| Scientific machine learning | |
| Domain- and physics-informed machine learning | |
| Feature importance: random forest Gini importance, permutation importance, drop-column importance, SHAP |
| Artificial Intelligence | |
| AI for Earth systems science | |
| Trusted AI and explainable AI | |
| Fairness and ethics in AI |
| Programming | |
| Python: NumPy, SciPy, Pandas, Xarray, DASK, Tigramite | |
| LaTeX | |
| HPC frameworks: Slurm, PBS, GNU Parallel | |
| MATLAB | |
| Minor experience with Docker and Ansible |
Interests
| Research Interests | |
| AI credibility for high-consequence domains | |
| Space-time causal discovery | |
| Physics-informed and scientific machine learning | |
| Credibility evidence for human trust and decision-making | |
| Earth system science and climate dynamics |
| Outside of Work | |
| Skiing | |
| Camping | |
| Cycling | |
| Scuba diving | |
| Cats and dogs |