CV

Basics

Name J. Jake Nichol
Label Senior Member of Technical Staff, AI Credibility, Sandia National Laboratories
Email jefnich@sandia.gov
Url https://www.jjakenichol.com
Summary Jake studies model credibility: how well the evidence shows that a model approximates the real-world process behind its data. In high-consequence settings, where models need to be reliable, that evidence has to be strong enough to act on. His background is in causal discovery, the study of how to infer cause and effect from data.

Education

  • 2018 - 2025

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Ph.D.
    University of New Mexico, School of Engineering
    Computer Science
    • Dissertation: Seeking Structure in Complex Systems: From Feature Analysis to Space-Time Causal Discovery with Earth Science Applications
    • Advisor: Melanie E. Moses
  • 2015 - 2017

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    M.B.A.
    University of New Mexico, Anderson School of Management
    Business Administration
  • 2011 - 2016

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    B.S.
    University of New Mexico, School of Engineering
    Computer Science

Work

  • 2026 - Present

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Senior Member of Technical Staff (R&D S&E, Artificial Intelligence)
    Sandia National Laboratories
    AI Credibility department.
    • Leading the credibility team on the Towards Certifying Trustworthy Machine Learning LDRD, including development of the Generalized Credibility Maturity Model (GCMM).
    • Causal modeling for cyber-physical threat detection in power grids (MetaShield LDRD) and causal analysis of weather foundation models (SEA-CROGS).
  • 2025 - 2026

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Postdoctoral Appointee
    Sandia National Laboratories
    Scientific Machine Learning department.
    • Research on AI credibility: causal discovery, trustworthy and certifiable machine learning, and physics-informed modeling for high-consequence applications.
    • Causal analysis of weather foundation models to test whether systematic interventions bias model behavior toward more (or less) realistic weather phenomena.
    • Causal modeling for cyber-physical threat detection in power grids.
  • 2019 - 2025

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    R&D Graduate Intern (Year-Round)
    Sandia National Laboratories
    Scientific Machine Learning department. Part-time 2019-2021, full-time 2021-2025.
    • Developed CaStLe, a causal discovery meta-algorithm for recovering local space-time causal structure in gridded data.
    • Led causal modeling for the CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD, identifying source-to-impact pathways in the climate system.
    • Applied and benchmarked causal discovery (PC, PCMCI) for causal pathways from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
    • Used random forest feature importance to compare observed and simulated climate data and expose model deficiencies.
  • 2018 - 2019

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Graduate Research Assistant
    University of New Mexico
    Department of Computer Science, School of Engineering.
    • Robotics research under Dr. Lydia Tapia.
    • Computational sociology research under Dr. Marina Kogan.
  • 2017 - 2019

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Owner
    Swarming Technologies LLC
    Profitable robotics company selling self-designed autonomous robots, custom-design consulting, and repair services.
    • Robots, known as 'Swarmies', were designed for swarm robotics and autonomous robotics research and education.
    • Swarmies were featured in the NASA Swarmathon, NASA MINDS competition, and CS4All NM.
  • 2015 - 2017

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Robot Engineer/Designer
    NASA Swarmathon & Moses Biological Computation Lab
    Designed and built the autonomous swarming robots used in the NASA Swarmathon, a nation-wide collegiate robotics competition.
    • Mechanical design in Autodesk Inventor; manufacturing via SLS, SLA, and FDM 3D printing, plus electronics development.
    • Analyzed competition data to track progress and success determinants using MySQL and Python (NumPy, SciPy, Pandas).
    • Automated code deployment to robot fleets using Ansible and Docker.
    • Swarm robotics research on Arduino/iPod Touch-controlled iAnt robots, tuning behavior with a genetic algorithm.
  • 2014 - 2014
    Software Engineering Intern
    Intel Corporation
    Product surveying, QA, troubleshooting, and testing.
    • Arduino/Galileo programming and debugging.
    • Designed and built a robotic car controlled by the Intel Galileo Gen 2, with Bluetooth input from an Android phone and sensors for line following and obstacle avoidance.

Projects

  • 2026 - Present
    MetaShield LDRD: Co-Lead, Causal AI Team
    PI: Georgios Fragkos. Combining causal AI with meta-learning to enhance ML detection of cyber-physical threats to power grids.
    • Co-leading the causal AI team to integrate causal modeling paradigms with ML for better power grid analysis and resilience.
    • Cross-lab team spanning centers 1400, 5600, 8700, and 8800, with industry partners PNM and GE Vernova.
  • 2026 - Present
    SEA-CROGS: Contributor
    PI: Eric Cyr. Scalable, Efficient and Accelerated Causal Reasoning Operators, Graphs and Spikes for Earth and Embedded Systems.
    • Developing causal analyses of the Aurora weather foundation model to determine whether systematic interventions can bias model behavior toward more (or less) realistic weather phenomena.
    • Collaboration between PNNL and SNL, with academic partners at Brown, Yale, Caltech, NJIT, and Stanford.
  • 2025 - Present
    Towards Certifying Trustworthy Machine Learning LDRD: Team Lead, Credibility
    PI: Michael Darling. Leading the credibility assessment effort.
    • Developing the Generalized Credibility Maturity Model (GCMM), which generalizes the CompSim Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) to any modeling paradigm.
    • Developing the taxonomy of computational modeling.
    • Cross-lab team spanning centers 1400, 5400, 5500, and 8700.
  • 2022 - 2024
    CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD: Causal Modeling Lead, Attribution Thrust
    PI: Diana Bull; Thrust Lead: Laura P. Swiler. CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways.
    • Led the R&D of applying causal modeling to understand the drivers of stratospheric aerosol transport and their impacts.
    • Led the R&D of a novel causal discovery algorithm (CaStLe) for gridded spatiotemporal data in physical systems.
  • 2021 - 2021
    Causal Evaluations for Identifying Differences Between Observations and Earth System Models (Late-Start LDRD): Contributor
    PI: Matt Peterson.
    • Developed a causal discovery methodology to model Arctic sea ice extent drivers, in preparation for applying the workflow in the CLDERA Grand Challenge LDRD.
  • 2020 - 2022
    Advanced Data Analytics for Proliferation Detection (ADAPD): Contributor
    A multi-lab initiative.
    • Developed hidden Markov models for multimodal temporal data analysis.
  • 2018 - 2020
    Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change LDRD: Contributor
    PI: Kara Peterson.
    • Developed random forest regression models for predicting Arctic sea ice extent with feature importance analysis.

Publications

Awards

Volunteer

  • 2026 - 2026
    Reviewer
    IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems
    Peer review for IEEE TNNLS.
  • 2025 - 2025
    Reviewer
    American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate
    Peer review for the Journal of Climate.
  • 2024 - 2024
    Reviewer
    ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
    Peer review for KDD.
  • 2018 - Present

    Santa Fe, NM, USA

    Adaptive Ski Instructor
    Adaptive Sports Program New Mexico Inc
    Teach skiing to people with various disabilities.
  • 2017 - 2020

    Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Troop 9 Board of Review Member
    Boy Scouts of America
    Attend board of review meetings to assist in scout advancement.

Skills

Causal Inference
Causal structure learning / causal discovery / causal network learning
Causal inference for advancing scientific machine learning
Machine Learning
Scientific machine learning
Domain- and physics-informed machine learning
Feature importance: random forest Gini importance, permutation importance, drop-column importance, SHAP
Artificial Intelligence
AI for Earth systems science
Trusted AI and explainable AI
Fairness and ethics in AI
Programming
Python: NumPy, SciPy, Pandas, Xarray, DASK, Tigramite
LaTeX
HPC frameworks: Slurm, PBS, GNU Parallel
MATLAB
Minor experience with Docker and Ansible

Interests

Research Interests
AI credibility for high-consequence domains
Space-time causal discovery
Physics-informed and scientific machine learning
Credibility evidence for human trust and decision-making
Earth system science and climate dynamics
Outside of Work
Skiing
Camping
Cycling
Scuba diving
Cats and dogs